Trump has blinked, for now, on levying tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I recently sent out an email (sign up here) about how I lost sleep over the weekend. Not because I’m worried about a trade war, but because of how compelling the episode was. I read all about it.
Americans wanted a businessman as president, and he is someone “pragmatic” and “transactional” who will back down on something that proves unpopular. I was never too concerned about a trade war not because my business would be safe, but because I know that he’ll change course if it ever hits the fan.
Part of why I decided not to worry is that we have seen that Trump does not always fight. He backs down. He blinks. Call them “tactical retreats” if you like. He does it all the time. He is not a holy warrior hellbent on jihad.
The first big blink came during the child separation saga. This was a policy he believed in. While politically incorrect and immoral, creating horrifying consequences is probably the only way to reduce immigration. Separating children from their families was more actionable than other ideas he had, like shooting them in the leg or stocking a moat with alligators.
They implemented the policy and it was working, but the outcry was deafening. Nothing else could break through, and you know he tried. Once he saw child separations were untenable, he backed down.
Trump is a political animal with a keen sense of where the public is on an issue. He knows exactly what he can get away with and he’ll go as far as he can, far enough and still squeeze out a 50-50 vote. If he gets too far away from that, he’ll cut his losses.
After Jan. 6, he tucked tail and laid low for months, an eternity for the attention span of a reality-TV star and social-media native. When his preferred nominee for attorney general proved untenable, he backed down. The act of Congress came under the next administration, but the TikTok ban was his brainchild.
It’s hard to argue against anything that wins 352 votes in the House and 79 in the Senate — informed votes from people privy to info we don’t have. The table was set, but when it was time to … just do nothing, just let it take effect … Trump blinked again. He gave the Chinese-owned social media even more runway than the nine months they had to appease national security concerns.
That last episode may be Trump backing down to the younger generation, or maybe his meeting with a generous donor and TikTok investor in the heat of the 2024 election. Another truism about Trump is that he can be bought. Not ideal, but another reason to chill. He’s not a jihadist ready to die for the cause. That’s nothing to be ashamed of. It is what it is.
You could see this in a good or bad light regardless of your politics. If you like Trump (and reading me?), tactical retreats are sometimes necessary to move forward. Someone who never backs down doesn’t get far.
If you’re like me and aren’t crazy about his politics, knowing he is rational will allow you to keep your attention from being at the mercy of every spectacle or indignity. That’s why I decided to disconnect and not get so sucked in like I did in his first term: because he will back down before it goes off the rails.
I still believe Donald Trump represents American fascism at the heights of unprecedented power, and his movement is ugly and dangerous and will end badly. But I might be wrong. And until we know, it is outside my control. The people voted for it. Small-d democrats must respect that.
Expat Chronicles 
You ought to go to your local library and sign out Trump’s book, “The Art of The Deal”.
You would have slept easier over the weekend.
I remember hearing last year during the campaign that Trump supporters take him seriously but don’t take what he says seriously. Whereas, Trump detractors take what he says seriously but don’t take him seriously.
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Well that was stupid. I don’t know how reading “The Art of The Deal” will do anything because I am sure Trump doesn’t talk about his failures which is okay for him since he was and is a multimillionaire, so he could afford to have failures but not the average American tho. Then again I have a funny feeling it’s the Marx’s manifesto bible all over again. Baby, the Art of the Deal is not a Bible.
I’m not surprised Trump supporters don’t take what he said seriously. They’re gullible and stupid. They’re either too busy idiolising him simply because he’s rich or look at him as a father-figure which is honestly pathetic and sad.
I’m getting tired of the rich men worship in this country. Look I get it, it’s everyone’s dream to be a multimillionaire or billionaire, but what is frankly sad is how everyone act as if these people are saviours. That they are somehow the key to all our problems when in truth they can help alleviate poor people’s problem but cannot get rid of it, but on the other side they can create more problems because you people put too much faith in a man, a regular human-being with no mystical/divine power which we are seeing now.
Another issue I see many Americans on the right are romanticising too much of the past between the Gilded Age and the 1950 even though pre-war Americans were living in tin houses or cheap wooden skeleton-type houses or tiny cramp apartments with little air ventilation during the wonderful opulent Gilded Age. And the 50’s were honestly just propaganda to entertain people’s boring life and to make Americans feel proud to be American after WWII.
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I think if you made a 4D axis with literally vs. seriously, careful planning vs. making it up as we go along, negotiation tactics vs. telling it like it is and all the other possibilities, you’d find people of all stripes getting caught in every vector. There is a method to the madness, but “unpredictable” is the key ingredient. I don’t believe he has waved the white flag on trade war. I think he backed off because markets looked poised to crash, but he is not finished. He has a long, expensive wish list to pay for and those are the only taxes he’s keen to raise… but we’ll see!
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