The logic behind Allan Lichtman’s election prediction model, Keys to the White House, which was wrong just once since its inception in 1984 (when electoral college did not match the closest popular vote in history), is that the national electorate is pragmatic and will give power to or remove a party (not a candidate) based on performance across a few key metrics.

The “keys” are 13 true/false statements. If six are false, the incumbent party loses. In 2024, six false keys means Biden will lose to whoever the GOP nominee is. Doesn’t matter who.

See the keys below. Some are subjective, some straightforward, some with my commentary, some without. Asterisk (*) denotes this key could change by November.

Again, the incumbent party loses if six statements are FALSE.

Midterm gains: FALSE

After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

While this key is technically false because Republicans gained nine House seats in 2022, I read their historically weak performance as a bad omen. Especially after the first two years of a new president’s administration, the opposition party usually reaps big gains.

There are few exceptions. In 2002, when George W. Bush’s response to 9/11 attacks enjoyed widespread approval, Republicans gained eight seats. In 1990, George H.W. Bush’s Republicans lost only eight seats amid the popular Gulf War.

Democratic presidents usually suffer greater midterm losses. For Republicans to pick up only nine seats was their party’s worst midterm performance since 1962, which took place just after John F. Kennedy backed Russia down in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Before that, you have to go back to FDR’s Democrats gaining nine seats after taking power from Herbert Hoover’s Republicans during the Great Depression.

Absent historic circumstances, midterms are the opposition party’s high-water mark. It only goes down from there.

No primary contest: TRUE

There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

Incumbent seeking re-election: TRUE

The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

No third party: TRUE*

There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Lichtman defines this key as a candidate who can garner 5% of the national vote. In 2016, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combined for just over 5%. In 1992, Ross Perot won 19% of the vote (and 8.4% in 1996).

Third parties do well when it’s common to hear people complain that both parties are too similar. We have the opposite in political polarization.

Strong short-term economy: TRUE*

The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

While the economy could enter recession next year, it’s unlikely given the economic initiatives enacted when Democrats controlled the House will begin to be executed during 2024. With trillions of dollars in industrial policy coming online, only a Great Recession-scale event could turn GDP growth negative for two consecutive quarters. A standard business cycle downturn won’t do it.

Strong long-term economy: TRUE

Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Economic growth under Biden has averaged 3.1%, compared to 2.2% during the previous eight years (2.21% during Trump years, 2.19% during Obama’s second term). Again, only a “black swan” crisis would pull Biden’s 3.1% below 2.2%.

Geek out on the data here: quarterly GDP growth per term in a spreadsheet. Play with the numbers to see how bad next year has to be for this key to turn false.

Major policy change: TRUE

The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

No social unrest: TRUE*

There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

This is a unique election in that the Republican candidate could be a previous president, one whose government saw substantial social unrest almost throughout the term. While Trump would not technically be the incumbent, so shouldn’t affect this key, having him in the news cycle will remind people what 2020 was like. It was the only year in my lifetime that reminded me of what I’ve read about the late 1960s, when civil unrest and political violence unsettled the nation. And in Trump, unlike LBJ, you had a president who aggravated that conflict, who didn’t even try to lower the temperature.

No scandal: TRUE*

The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

This key is about the incumbent, but again, you could have a pseudo-incumbent challenger if Donald Trump is the nominee. History has not seen a president more tainted by scandal. You’d have a twice-impeached former president who left in disgrace. He will be under indictment, out on bail and/or on trial for dozens of felonies. And of course he led an insurrection against Congress.

No foreign/military failure: TRUE*

The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

The Afghanistan withdrawal was ugly, but to turn this key false it must be a major failure and global embarrassment. Think the Vietnam War, the Iran hostage crisis or the Iraq War … in 2008 (not the Iraq War in 2004).

Major foreign/military success: FALSE

The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Charismatic incumbent: FALSE

The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Uncharismatic challenger: TRUE

The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Neither Trump nor any of the GOP primary challengers would meet Lichtman’s definition of a charismatic politician: someone who has broad appeal beyond the traditional base. Trump is like Hillary Clinton in having narrow appeal, albeit deep, with high unfavorable ratings. In fact, Trump is uniquely disliked by everybody outside his base. Not charismatic in the sense of broadening the base.

FALSE KEYS = 3

Republicans need six false keys to win. They have three, and one was a limp across the finish line. Absent a financial crisis, major scandal or foreign-policy failure — absent two of those actually — Joe Biden will likely win reelection.

Colin’s Keys

Maybe notable criteria that aren’t in Lichtman’s keys.

The Trump Factor

Much of the nuance I’ve added assumes Trump will be the Republican nominee. In the wake of last year’s midterms, I likened Trump in a GOP primary to Mike Tyson in his prime. At the time of publishing that, Trump’s endorsements were trounced while Ron DeSantis won reelection by 19 points. At that time, there was a feeling that Trump was finished. And an aura of inevitability around DeSantis. It may seem so obvious now that DeSantis is weird and unviable, but it wasn’t then. I was going against the grain when I wrote:

The Republican base cannot be overestimated. They are capable of nominating this guy (Trump) again. I daresay he’s the favorite.

I’ll take a victory lap on that, given polling, while pointing out it’s not over. Trump may not be the nominee.

In 2020, the Democrats’ only serious candidate who would have lost to Trump started winning primaries. The moderate Democrats, any one of whom would have beaten Trump, coalesced behind their strongest candidate to prevent nominating Bernie Sanders.

The Republicans could still do something similar. In fact, some are trying. There won’t be many details made public (yet), but the business-class capitalists who have a stronger grip on reality are huddling right now to prevent a Trump candidacy. Nikki Haley seems to be the one they rally around. They don’t have much time left, but it could happen.

Do Republicans have the social intelligence, the marketing competence and political prudence to do what Democrats did to win? Or do too many live in their alternative reality, where they don’t need any course correction to beat Sleepy Joe Biden’s crime family hiding in the basement?

I don’t think it matters. A strong GOP candidate would not change enough keys to the election. The only scenario I see the Republicans winning is if Joe Biden dies and Republicans nominate Nikki Haley. In other words, Biden beats everybody and Kamala beats Trump, but Kamala vs. Haley is a tossup.

Icing on the cake: I believe even Bernie would beat Trump in 2024 (post-January 6, indictments, etc.).

Should Inflation be a Key?

GDP growth is the only economic indicator in the keys. According to Lichtman, nothing else matters (poverty, unemployment, stock prices, deficits, etc.). But inflation feels like it could be salient enough for voters to demand change. Lichtman developed the keys by looking at all presidential elections throughout history. But we only have inflation data since 1960.

It’s hard to ignore that in two of the three times inflation was as high as it is now, the White House changed hands. Inflation peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at a level closer to 1972 (when Nixon won reelection) than when incumbents lost in 1976 and 1980. And inflation seems to be going down.

However, nobody under the age of 60 has experienced inflation this high. Is inflation a hidden key, overlooked because of a lack of data?

The Bill is Due, Redux (Party in Disarray)

The Republican party is undergoing a historic realignment, which is a bit of a shitshow. The fissures are coming into relief, exacerbated by the toxic leadership of Donald Trump. They’re struggling to hold together a shrinking coalition.

Ideology aside, Trump’s example of graft and self-dealing has been followed across the country. In Texas, Republicans tried to impeach their own attorney general for corruption too brazen to ignore, but failed when Trump came to his defense. Election denialism is driving party conflict particularly in the states they need to win in 2024.

I don’t see how a party in chaos, with a vacuum of principled leadership, can come together to win an election without a perfect storm of financial crisis, political scandal and social unrest coming down in the middle of the election. Doesn’t matter who the candidate is. The bill is due for banana republicans. They haven’t yet reckoned with reality.

That’s all for this year. No election coverage until well into 2024.