Robespierre without the Blood

I sense something in the way of American society, under the surface, or out in the open. A theme connects personalities and culture that captured the public imagination. I wonder if we’re on the precipice of a new Progressive Era.

Two of the most popular TV series of the last decade, “Succession” and “White Lotus,” ridicule the wealthy elite. “Mountainhead” disparages the billionaire class but focuses on the outsize power of tech billionaires. “Severance” questions the meaning of modern work and corporate power. “Squid Game” highlights the desperation for economic security.

If life imitates art, the same theme underlines the curious lionization of Luigi Mangione, who murdered a healthcare executive, and Andrew Yang, whose signature policy of universal basic income (UBI) gives a living salary to all citizens. The likely election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York reveals a public yearning for economic relief, while Bernie Sanders barnstorms the country, packing stadiums even in small cities in his “Fighting Oligarchy Tour.”

Economic data shows inequality is the highest in a century, probably since the Gilded Age (before modern data). In a previous article I wondered if a politico-econ revolution were impossible because the poor today simply aren’t that poor. To the contrary, they’re fat. I recently heard that argument from a Boomer.

I argued against him, I took the other side. If you read “Grapes of Wrath” to someone from the 18th century, they would have thought those Okies were fat and happy, they were fine. That resulted in the New Deal.

Don’t focus on the impoverished, think about what young people face today, particularly re: housing and healthcare.

When a Boomer came of age, he could expect to move out immediately after college and buy a house in three to five years, often with his income alone while his wife stayed at home. A boomer with no college would buy a house a little sooner, five to seven years after high school. Almost nobody lived with their parents in their 20s. I’m old enough to remember when that was shameful.

The average graduate of a four-year college today makes a starting salary of just under $70,000. Workers who opt out of college will make about $43,000. Go to Zillow right now and see what kind of house you can buy in your city with that. Your options explain why the average age of a first-time homebuyer today is 38.

Medical debt is not just the leading cause of personal bankruptcies, it’s the majority at over 60%. You could divide it in three and it would still be the #1 cause. Unless you’re a career corporate warrior, you probably have a horror story of something not being covered. Some people refuse to go to the hospital when they need care because they’re afraid of crippling debt when they come out. That’s probably unsustainable.

I would have compared the current situation to the Gilded Age of the late 19^th century, which was followed by the Progressive Era that codified antitrust legislation, expanded voting and labor rights and created our national parks. I still think we are poised for another phase of that, but then I perused the causes of the French Revolution…

Deep in debt after supporting the American Revolution, the French government raised taxes on the middle and lower classes, but not the wealthy, amid high inflation, particularly for bread. As Enlightenment ideas like equality and the rights of man took hold, the extravagance of the spendthrift Marie Antoinette served as an easy foil for an angry public.

Trump-led Republicans just cut taxes on the wealthiest earners while slashing spending on healthcare. Meanwhile, tariffs on imported goods effectively transfer the tax burden from rich to the working and middle classes. Those tariffs will cause a short-term bump in prices, an immediate spike in inflation which has started to register in the data.

Exacerbating the deficit will guarantee high interest rates, which have a way of working themselves into pricing throughout the economy. Finally, deporting a large chunk of the cheapest laborers will put lasting pressure on the industries that rely on them the most: construction and agriculture (increased housing and food prices).

I would count the political success of Donald Trump among the cultural phenomena mentioned earlier. He did not run on economic austerity or Medicaid cuts. His brand is a revolutionary fighting for the common man. His campaign vowed to bring down prices, but he has now set the table to do the opposite in spectacular fashion.

A recession or financial crisis could be the spark to an American-style French Revolution, but the result would look more like a second Progressive Era or Square Deal. History may look back and say it was all so obvious, with the Billionaires Row at Trump’s inauguration, followed by the world’s richest man heading up an effort to slash spending. What better caricature of excess to rival Marie Antoinette?

I may be dead wrong about all this, I have been before. But if I’m not, I’d watch the Boomers’ actuary tables. The average Boomer birth year was 1955 while average life expectancy is about 78. That puts the critical mass of Boomer extinction around 2033. Given Democrats are healthier and live longer, I’d put the turning point at 2030. That is when I think the history books will define the beginning of America’s second Progressive Era.