“Indian Giver” was a common insult when I was a kid. It meant someone who gave you something and then asked for it back. The historical accuracy of the slur is debated, but the popular perception in 20th century America was that Indians sold their land, and later demanded it back.
The USMCA, also known as NAFTA 2.0, “is the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law. It’s the best agreement we’ve ever made…”
Trump said that in 2020. This year, he reneged and slapped tariffs on both Canada and Mexico. Trump is the greatest Indian Giver we’ve ever seen. His new nickname on this blog, among others, is Chief Pocahontas.
In addition to Indian Giving, Trump has a strong tendency toward banana republicanism. Trade protectionism was the failed policy de jour of 20th-century South America, most notably Argentina. Trump’s economic policy looks much like that of Juan Peron, attempting to build a manufacturing industry protected by tariffs, subsidies and such.
Other countries that attempted to become self-sufficient, producing everything at home, include the Soviet Union and North Korea. Argentina’s economy for a few generations has been considered a basket case and the region’s economic policies of the time lead to the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s.
Trump didn’t implement his Art of the Retreat on Capitulation Day (seven days after Liberation Day) because of the crashing stock market. It’s been reported that, in his blue blood bias, he couldn’t believe Biden’s approval ratings were declining as the stock market continued setting record highs. The Wharton MBA seemed to internalize, in his 70s, that the stock market is not the economy.
Trump backed down because stocks crashed at the same time as bonds and the dollar also crashed. To have all three crash at the same time is unprecedented in modern history. This is a phenomenon that only happens in emerging market shitholes, and notably the banana republics of Latin America. An impressive feat for our Generalissimo Banana Republican.
Argentina has defaulted on its national debt nine times since Peron. Trump has declared corporate bankruptcy six times. The Indian Giver in Chief has a long history of refusing to pay his debts. In 2015, he suggested defaulting on our debt.
That is the final glass ceiling for Chief Pocahontas, a sovereign default. I give it a 50-50 chance.
It won’t be a stark refusal to pay, like Rafael Correa of Ecuador in 2008. It probably won’t be a needs-based insistence like that of Peru’s Alan Garcia in the 1980s. I think it would be a jingoistic refusal to pay certain creditors (China), in a precedent that will attack none other than the first conservative, Alexander Hamilton, whose policy of equitable treatment of public creditors encouraged investment in the nation.
I’m not predicting it. I’m watching it. Partially expecting it, from our Generalissimo Banana Republican, Chief Pocahontas.
Expat Chronicles 