Donald Trump has shocked the world with a historic electoral victory. Here is a list of my quick thoughts.
Trump is Remarkable
I wanted to believe Trump was a flash in the pan, and that the two parties would revert to capital vs. labor after he flunked out of politics or died. Instead, Trump will define an era and leave a deeper mark on our political terrain than even Reagan or Obama did.
Trump has ushered in the greatest political realignment since Nixon’s Southern Strategy or FDR’s New Deal Democrats. Neither race nor wealth are the best indicators of how someone votes. In what is known as the “diploma divide,” the greatest predictor is education. The Republicans are the party of the working-class proles and the Democrats are for overeducated dweebs.
Months ago I heard a pundit suggest that the Republican party was becoming a multiracial, right-wing populist party, which he said are somewhat common in Europe. With Trump’s biggest gains coming from Black and Latino voters, the writing is on the wall. Perusing Amazon for an authority, I added “Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP” to my list.
Not other conservative politician could have achieved it. Trump is a unique figure in being a sociopath strongman that attracts young male and minority voters. Trump is a brilliant promoter whose knowledge of social media and popular culture is unrivaled. He understands that a critical mass don’t want boring politics. They want boots and heels and drama.
As much as I wanted him to be insignificant, Trump is remarkable in American history.
Inflation Matters
Inflation is the issue that doomed the Democrats. There is all kinds of Monday-morning quarterbacking going on today about what they could have done differently. I don’t think anything would have saved the day. The cake was baked.
It’s a lesson we’ve probably forgotten in our collective memory, given it’s been two generations since we’ve had any significant inflation. The response to the Great Recession aimed to keep inflation in check. That was later seen as a mistake. In hindsight, leaders forgot how crippling it is. After the pandemic, there was a bipartisan consensus in this country to run a white-hot economy. Everybody forgot how that stokes inflation and inflation brings discontent, especially among the Republican’s Party’s new base in the working class.
Incumbent governments have had their arses kicked around the world this year. It doesn’t matter which side of the ideological spectrum they are on. Inflation is high everywhere and voters are demanding change. I don’t want to take anything away from Trump’s political genius. But inflation is just as big a story this cycle.
Polls are Right
| Year | Poll Average (popular vote) | Result | Difference |
| 2016 | Clinton +3.9 | Clinton +2.1 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | Biden +8.4 | Biden +4.5 | 3.9 |
| 2024 | Harris +1.2 | Trump +3.3 | 4.5 |
It’s counterintuitive because polls are a popular villain, but it’s true. Above are the polling averages and final results for the last three years. They are within a reasonable margin of error.
I put a lot of faith in Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys since 2016 (see last election post). This is the first time his system was wrong in both the electoral college and popular vote. The polls, on the other hand, are always pretty close. Despite this election having the greatest differential, a standard 3% margin of error means each candidate’s can move three points in either direction, so…
+/-3 = 3+3 = 6 total points
Allan Lichtman is out. Nate Silver is in. Don’t doubt the polls.
‘Election Integrity’ is for Grifters and Suckers
There will be no election denialism from Republicans because they won. There will be no election integrity prosecutions because electoral fraud is extremely rare and does not affect outcomes. It is a myth perpetuated by a con man maintaining the mirage of an all powerful cult leader.
Many people don’t believe Trump won in 2020 but voted for him in 2024. So I’m not talking about all Trump voters, but of the people who profess it and/or believe it. There are two kinds. Grifters are making money in the business of politics. This can be as little as social media influencers oor paid newsletters, and as large as campaign operatives and elected politicians. The people who truly believe the voter fraud stories, but don’t make any money at it, are not grifters. They are suckers.
Look at the Bright Side
I think many partisans get caught up in viewing things as good vs. evil. Policy is only sometimes a zero-sum game. Political leaders trying to improve the wealth and security of everybody. That’s the surest way to success. And being president is like being at the controls of the Death Star. With all that firepower at your fingertips, you’re going to notch some wins for Team America.
When he was at the helm, Trump notched a list of wins, some I recognized at the time and some I came to see later. In the end I don’t think he was a good president because he bungled the pandemic, almost lost control of the country and of course refused to accept the results of an election. But he will notch some wins for the country. Not everything below is completely good, but here is a list of policies you can say something positive about.
- I will pay less in taxes.
- Lower corporate tax rate ended corporate inversions.
- “Remain in Mexico” for asylum seekers
- Scared Europe into beefing up their defense.
- Abraham Accords
- Assassination of Qasem Soleimani
- Paved the way for Biden’s infrastructure bill
- Paved the way for Biden’s CHIPS Act
- COVID vaccines
- The anti-fragile argument I made in How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Trump
Accept and Disconnect
In 2016 I posted this to social media: “The campaign’s over, hit the ‘reset'”‘ button and give Trump a shot. He just might strike a tone of moderation.” I’m under no illusion that he’ll play nice, but it’s important to acknowledge he won and to hope for the best, at least to set a good example for those crackpots and suckers who believed he won in 2020.
Trump will bring back the professional wrestling / reality television style of government, but this time I’ll be ready for it. I’ve slowly withdrawn from social media since Jan. 6 and I cancelled my newspaper subscriptions since he won reelection. I’m going to try to disconnect and stay aloof. I plan to focus on business and family. I can’t control what the nation wants.
But Stay a Little Vigilant
It makes me cringe to say “democracy” is my top issue, but that is the word of the day. I do not want to see another attempt to steal an election, which is what culminated in Jan. 6. I’ve spent a lot of time looking at Hugo Chavez and other dictators, and Trump is the right-wing gringo version of that.
I’ll drop any hopes for respect and professionalism and can turn a blind eye to the inevitable kleptocracy. I don’t want society to tear at the seams as it did in 2020, the year when the United States felt the most out of control in my life, but my real priority is not having any banana republic consolidations of power.
That may be a tall order. There have been enough party purges that “ideological purity” (“fealty to Trump”) is complete. I don’t think there is anything he could do that would get him impeached. As he said, he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue. On the other hand, given his age, weight and lifestyle, he’s more likely to blow a gasket and die unexpectedly than have a long, dignified decline. So he doesn’t have much time to do too much damage.
Did you vote for Trump? So us a favor and take the “I Voted for Trump Three Times” Challenge!
The “I Voted for Trump Three Times” Challenge
Trump himself has said that you would support him even if he shot someone on 5th Avenue. Prove him wrong and write down your red line. Identify one act that would lead you to stop supporting him. It could be anything.
For example, shoot someone on 5th Avenue. Run for reelection in 2028. Dissolve Congress. Cancel or postpone elections. Steering public money and resources to paramilitaries like the Proud Boys or Oath Keepers. Order the military to move against a state government.
It could be anything. Identify your red line.
P.S. This is not my last political post of 2024. On this blog, I have to write why it was always inevitable that Hispanics would shift right.
Expat Chronicles 
It’s not complicated. The Democrats lost because they picked a bad candidate. Twice. I knew Biden was too old to run again but the debate proved it. Then he handed the crown to Harris who has never been popular. She lost early in the 2020 campaign. She dropped out before the first primary because she was so unpopular. Michelle Obama or Oprah (better) would have beaten Trump, if they had gotten started early. The Democrats blew it. If the Republicans run the economy into the ditch the Democrats may be able to come back in 2028.
My degree was in Accounting and I had 2 semesters of Economics, both As, thank you very much. The Pandemic inflation was caused by giving away free money. Both parties wanted to print money out of thin air and that always causes inflation in high enough quantities. You can Google “M2 money supply chart” to see the spike in the money supply in 2020-2021. If Trump cuts taxes again and raises tariffs it may well cause inflation to return and people may not be so forgiving, even his MAGA fans. I hope he and the country does well. I suspect he won’t.
LikeLike
I agree the largesse drove inflation, but much of it was transitory as well as supply chains (especially in China) got mucked up. I agree that Trump has never even uttered a deflationary policy. If left to his own devices, he’ll throw gasoline on the fire. Fortunately inflation is back within normal levels, so he’s inheriting a good place. That doesn’t mean prices come down, they just stop rising.
I respectfully disagree about Biden or Harris. Hindsight 20/20 I think any candidate was doomed.
LikeLike
Your post was long and I’ll admit I didn’t read it all, but it seems like you’re saying the country was unhappy with the economy so they were not going to vote for another Democrat. The sad truth of that is that in reality the economy is quite good. Inflation is back down, employment is high, real wages have been increasing. The stock market is way up. It seems like the biggest problem is they see the wealthy getting much richer and they are not. I feel that way. Why is everybody else getting rich but not me? But in reality a vote for Republicans is to make the rich richer and the national debt much bigger. Maybe a good candidate could have found a way to sell that truth. Instead Americans bought the lies of the Republicans.
LikeLike
I agree the economy is good, and in fact inflation has fallen back to normal. But we have to step out of our educated shoes and think about the perspective of a wage laborer for example. They’re not watching GDP numbers. They don’t have a historic perspective on inflation. They may be ignorant but they’re not stupid. Inflation may be back down but prices are high compared to what they were, so they vote for change. That’s the headline in my opinion. There are other factors of course. The woke stuff, the one-party rule in blue states is increasingly unpopular, for example. But inflation ousted the incumbents at the end of the day.
LikeLike
One thing I think you didn’t address is that the information ecosystem related to politics has shifted a lot in recent years and accelerated during the pandemic. Every channel is dominated by conservatives setting the agenda – from cable news channels to newspapers (who are pulling their endorsements) to podcasts to local TV news to social media – everyone is reacting to whatever talking points the right is aligning on, or basically not covering anything negative related to Trump or Republicans. A lot of the stories that seemed like bad news for Trump, like “island of floating garbage” and that rally where he seemed lost and just listened to music for a half hour, were completely ignored by conservative media, and at this point a critical mass of people don’t consume anything else. And forget about getting any positive coverage of Democrats and their initiatives. And all that is compounded by the shift to people getting most of their information from their phones, and lots of the material they consume through their phones having only a loose relationship with facts, a dynamic Trump is great at exploiting for his benefit too. I don’t think Democrats have adjusted – they kept working on getting out the vote the old fashioned way and it didn’t move the needle at all.
As for me, I am doing what you are doing. As soon as I confirmed Trump won on Wednesday I stopped consuming news and haven’t missed it. In contrast to 2016 I don’t want to follow this day to day, and it’s out of my control. I will help where I can or have to, but honestly I don’t want to marinate in this stuff or the emotions it generates within me in response. And while Trump is a good marketer he is not exactly a great administrator, and the pendulum will probably swing back if/when he fucks a bunch of important things up.
LikeLike
Policy debate is largely dead because “the media” is so balkanized into perspectives across the spectrum, and yes there is a huge right-wing crackpot media that has at least a third of the country under its spell. I used to be under its spell. I’ve never written about that. It didn’t last long, in the early 2000s. It wasn’t as nutty as it is today.
I see that not just centrist normies are disconnecting. “The Resistance” from 2017 is exhausted and is likely to stay home and accept it. I don’t want to be pulled in either but he is a master. Just when you’re ready to accept what you can’t control, you get Matt Gaetz for attorney general 🙂
LikeLike